John Feneck: Gold, Silver to Retest Highs, "Don't Get Off the Horse"

Portfolio manager John Feneck is telling precious metals investors to stay the course as both gold and silver position for another run at January's peaks. Speaking to Investing News, the Feneck Consulting principal sees rotation beginning away from equities and into hard assets, with gold currently trading at **$5,189.73** and silver at **$88.17**. The gold-to-silver ratio sits at **58.9:1**, suggesting silver maintains its relative strength compared to historical norms above 70:1. Feneck's "don't get off the horse" message comes as both metals have pulled back from their January highs but show technical signs of consolidation rather than breakdown.

This pullback mirrors the pattern we saw in late 2023, when gold retreated from its September highs near **$2,050** only to blast through **$2,100** by December and eventually reach January's record territory above **$5,000**. Silver followed a similar trajectory, consolidating around **$70-75** before its explosive move past **$85**. The current pause feels familiar to seasoned stackers who watched metals digest gains before the next leg higher. What's different this time is the macro backdrop — central bank buying hasn't slowed, real rates remain negative when adjusted for true inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue supporting safe haven demand. The January highs weren't a blow-off top but rather a preview of where these metals are headed once the next catalyst emerges.

Physical market dynamics support Feneck's bullish thesis, even if paper traders are taking profits. COMEX gold inventories have shown persistent drawdowns over recent months, while silver registered vault stocks remain historically tight. Dealer premiums for both metals have stayed elevated despite the price pullback, indicating strong underlying physical demand. The disconnect between paper price action and physical market stress continues to widen, with delivery demands on futures contracts running well above normal levels. Mine supply constraints haven't eased — if anything, geopolitical disruptions and energy costs are pressuring production while global demand from both central banks and individual stackers remains robust.

Feneck's observation about equity rotation deserves attention when cross-referenced with broader market flows. While stock markets have shown volatility, precious metals haven't seen the typical inverse correlation during equity weakness. Instead, both asset classes are moving independently, suggesting metals are responding to their own fundamental drivers rather than simply serving as portfolio diversifiers. The persistence of negative real yields across major economies continues to erode the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. Meanwhile, currency debasement concerns haven't disappeared — they've simply moved to the back burner as markets focus on shorter-term technical factors.

Key levels to monitor include gold's ability to hold above **$5,100** support and silver maintaining the **$85** floor that's been tested multiple times. The March COMEX delivery period will provide crucial insight into physical demand, particularly for silver where industrial users often take delivery. Watch for any signs of inventory stress in the registered category, which has been the canary in the coal mine for previous price breakouts. Central bank purchase data from major buyers like China and Russia, typically released with a lag, will confirm whether institutional accumulation continues at January's pace.

For stackers, this consolidation represents opportunity rather than concern. Physical premiums haven't collapsed with spot prices, confirming that real-world demand remains strong. Those building their stack should view any further weakness as a gift, particularly in silver where the supply-demand fundamentals grow tighter each quarter. The horse Feneck references isn't just moving — it's picking up speed.